The speed of that fall is much slower than the equivalent rise to the 22.9% peak that happened in December 2022. On the way up it took just four months to rise from 15% to the peak, on the way down over twice the time period at 11 months.
In November, FPI saw just two categories (oils and fats at 1.4%, and dairy at 8.8%) performing below 10% year-on-year. This was in contrast to vegetables where inflation remained extremely high at 27.3%.
Shaun Allen, chief executive of Prestige Purchasing, said: “There’s little doubt that wholesalers have been battling rising costs, just like hospitality operators and the remainder of the supply chain. But with the market coming off peak-levels of inflation operators need to be especially vigilant as suppliers seek to enhance margins to rebuild their balance sheets.”
The UN FAO Food Commodity Index (the overall measure of international food commodity prices) averaged 120.4 points in November 2023, unchanged from its October level, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oils, dairy products and sugar counterbalanced decreases in those of cereals and meat.
James Ashurst, client director at CGA by NIQ, added: “After such rapid rises in inflation in recent times, it’s frustrating to see a much slower journey back towards more normal levels. High rises in the cost of vegetables are particularly concerning as we move towards 2024. The general UK rate of inflation may be coming down, but businesses across the food supply chain will be feeling the heat on prices for some time to come.”