Employment in the hospitality sector is forecast to fall by the equivalent of an annual average of -1.39% by 2023 compared to 2019. When measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) the hospitality sector is predicted to be smaller in 2023 than it was in 2019.
Christian Mole, EY’s UK&I head of hospitality & leisure, commented: “There is no doubt that hospitality is one of the sectors most adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
“As social distancing restrictions ease and consumer confidence returns during the post-pandemic period, we expect consumer demand for travel and eating out to recover.
“Where some businesses were facing the challenge of rising labour costs pre-pandemic due to a talent shortage, this pressure will likely be eased given higher staff availability.
“While the sector is forecast to have a smaller footprint in the future, the businesses that are resilient enough to survive may ultimately emerge to become healthier and better positioned for long-term growth.”
The forecast shows the sector will see regional inequalities, with the largest declines in the South West (-1.83% per year between 2019-23) and the West Midlands (-1.7%). The regions likely to see the lowest declines in employment are London (-0.97%) and the South East (-1.07%).