The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes the Spring 2024 edition of its regular Market Forecast. The forecast is created by using insight supplied by the range of suppliers as well as official inflation data, to look at food and drink pricing in the run-up to the spring trading period.
Rachel Dobson, managing director of Lynx Purchasing, explained: “The easing of inflationary pressures on the hospitality sector is very welcome. The price increases of the past two years are now bedded in, and operators can start to plan their menus for spring and summer accordingly.
“However, the supply chain is still very sensitive to shocks, The ongoing crisis in Ukraine is still having a significant impact on cooking oil and grain prices, while disruption to shipping through the Suez Canal is affecting the cost of a wide range of commodities. Suppliers of bulkier items such as catering equipment, are already advising customers to factor in delays.
“Blockades and protests by European farmers also have the potential to affect supplies into the UK, and even closer to home, the first few weeks of 2024 saw a series of storms hit the UK, as well as sub-zero temperatures. Farmers and growers are still assessing the resulting damage to crops, which may not be fully apparent for several months.”
Specific product areas highlighted in the latest Market Forecast include:
- Meat: Lamb prices are generally high due to strong global demand, making it a premium menu item
- Fish: Frozen fish and processed fish products will be affected by higher shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict
- Fresh veg: Flooding in many parts of the UK followed by freezing temperatures have affected a range of crops in terms of both yield and the costs of harvesting
- Salad: Prices are likely to remain fairly high until UK salad crops start to become more widely available in late spring
- Cooking oil: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Russian invaders is expected to keep sunflower oil prices high
- Wine: New World wines have better availability, but are likely to be affected by higher shipping costs
A free copy of the Spring 2024 Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast can be downloaded from the website at: www.lynxpurchasing.co.uk.