The findings highlight how a combination of extreme weather driven by climate change and global supply disruptions as well as continued exposure to volatile oil and gas markets have compounded pressures on the food system, with households facing sustained increases at the checkout.
According to the analysis, staples including pasta (+50%), frozen vegetables (+55%), chocolate (+58%), eggs (+59%), beef (+64%) and olive oil (+113%) have already seen some of the steepest rises, reflecting their sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, both in the UK and in key import regions.
Together, these forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, with energy shocks accounting for £244 of this. Five climate-impacted foods - butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee - have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation, with the price of these foods rising over four times faster than other food and drink.
Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect kicking off this year.
“Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years. Unless we get to net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will spiral ever further, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, so insulating our food system from the kind of price spikes we’ve been seeing since Russian invaded Ukraine.”
Lower-income households are expected to be disproportionately affected by higher food prices, as they spend a larger share of their income on food and are less able to absorb price shocks.
The Food Foundation estimates that in order to afford the Government recommended healthy diet, the most deprived fifth of the population would need to spend 45% of their disposable income on food, rising to 70% for those households with children.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food foundation, added: “Food prices rising this high, and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate.
“When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises - taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it. This conflict is the latest shock in a series, and there will be more.
“The question for Government isn't just how to respond to this crisis - it's whether we're finally going to build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next one. That's exactly what the Good Food Bill would do: lock in a long-term commitment to affordable, healthy food so that the next geopolitical shock doesn't land on the plates of the families who can least afford it.”